The Foggy Road Ahead
So, if licensing and support aren't likely to be major issues for XP prior to Windows 7's arrival, what types of problems could IT departments encounter by skipping Vista? That question is difficult to answer definitively right now.
For some companies, Vista offers functionality that they can't -- or would rather not -- do without. "The big features that I really liked out of Vista were the searching capabilities, which are very powerful for us," says Scott Knowles, director of technology and education at Kinex Medical Co. LLC in Waukesha, Wis. "We deal with hundreds of thousands of patient records, and that's a nice thing to have."
Another nice thing to have for many IT professionals is Vista's built-in security, which observers agree is much better than that of XP -- even if it can sometimes be hard to manage.
"For all of its flaws, you don't really hear about it being hacked a whole lot," Torres says. But Microsoft has, over time, fixed most of the many security problems that dogged XP for years. "Complaints are dying down about XP," Torres notes.
Nevertheless, XP could become more vulnerable the longer it remains the enterprise's OS of choice.
"Any product that sits around for that long, the vector of attack is just going to continue to grow," Murphy says. "People are using things in new ways -- there's more mobility with Web 2.0. All that stuff is increasing the number of people who are going to try to attack XP. If I keep throwing balls at the target, I'm eventually going to hit the target."
DeGroot agrees, although he notes that Microsoft isn't likely to let security problems plague XP. "I couldn't say there was no security risk [in sticking with XP]," he says. "It's possible that there is some. Presumably we're talking about a security risk that was present in both Vista and XP, and Microsoft might move faster to fix it in Vista." However, he notes, that's "not likely" given XP's near-90 percent market share.
And Torres adds that while Vista might have better built-in security, companies learned how to secure XP long ago and generally don't need Vista's native protection. "Every company runs a bidirectional firewall," he says.
Still, unforeseen security risks could linger for companies that don't move to Vista, as could another unforeseen factor -- technology advancements from Microsoft. In recent years, Microsoft has merged "back-office" functions with Microsoft Office through Microsoft Office SharePoint Server. SharePoint is now a billion-dollar business for Microsoft and has proven popular for its ability to expose back-office data to Office 2007 applications.
While SharePoint's more useful data-merging capabilities do largely require Office 2007 to function, they don't require Vista. And Office 2007 runs just fine with XP, users say. "We've seen Office 2007 do great under XP," says John Bowden, CIO at Clearfield, Utah-based LifeTime Products Inc. Bowden's company is sticking with XP and is unlikely to move to Vista, he says.
Of course, all of that could change if Microsoft decides to require Vista for certain SharePoint capabilities. And that's another risk of sticking with XP-missing out on forthcoming Microsoft innovation that could conceivably be Vista-only.
"Microsoft always pitches the tightening integration between Windows, Office and the former BackOffice," says NET(net) Inc.'s Braden. "You'd miss out on that future functionality."
It's hard, however, to say exactly what that future functionality might be. "The problem is Microsoft has become so tight about sharing the roadmaps," Braden continues. "You can have Dell come in and give you a hardware roadmap as far out as Intel is willing to plan. Microsoft won't do that."
By the same token, while SharePoint functionality could someday make staying with XP a disadvantage, Software as a Service -- otherwise known as cloud computing -- could render the OS debate moot.
Murphy notes that Microsoft requiring Vista for future SharePoint functionality could lead to something of a customer revolt. "If they said you couldn't do x and y unless you had Vista -- as a CTO, I'm going to sit there and say, 'That's not the best architectural implementation that you want to have.'"
Nevertheless, running 10-year-old XP technology in 2011 could put some companies behind the innovation curve. Whether it will or not remains to be seen.
Betting It All on Windows 7
Unless companies move to the Mac or an open source platform, there's one thing they almost assuredly won't be doing if they take a pass on Vista -- and that's skipping Windows 7. Given speculation that Windows 7 could very well be based on Vista technology, the jump from XP might end up being a significant one.
"It's going to be a very, very significant shift going from XP to Windows 7," Murphy says. "That's going to be a gigantic step. I think people should take this time to begin the migration process."
That leap is one of the reasons why Kinex Medical's Knowles chose to move his company to Vista -- to have a more incremental climb up the OS ladder. "Ultimately you're going to upgrade anyway," Knowles says. "If you're going to upgrade, I tend to think that you can make some of the smaller steps early and it seems to go a little smoother."
But XP's continued market domination and the relatively speedy arrival of Windows 7 could mean that lots of companies will be jumping straight from XP to the new OS. And if that's the case, Microsoft would likely need to help expedite that process.
"We'll have to see how the migration tools turn out," Bowden says. "I'm not sure what they're going to provide, but [we're] not the only company in that situation."
Directions on Microsoft's DeGroot contends that the jump from XP to Windows 7 might not be so high after all. "I'd actually argue it's a smaller jump," he says. "Probably the biggest problem with Vista in terms of standardizing it for many enterprises is the fact that it won't run on a lot of older hardware. The notion of a company-wide rollout of an OS that doesn't run on 40 percent of your machines is a really daunting idea."
DeGroot contends Microsoft learned its lesson from Vista, which is it can't leap significantly ahead on the hardware requirements and expect everybody in business to go out and buy new hardware.
"There's a very strong probability that the hardware requirements for Windows 7 will not be higher than those for Vista," DeGroot continues. "By 2011, the oldest machines will be Vista-era machines. Even if you're looking at a five-year hardware-refresh cycle, by the time you get around to deploying Windows 7 you'll have very few pieces of hardware that can't run it."
Beyond that, Murphy says, virtualization technology should help with the XP-to-Windows 7 leap. "Windows 7 will do a lot of capitalization on virtualization," he says. "If you can take your XP legacy apps, build virtual machines around those and use them in Windows 7, it's a little bit of a safety net."
The 10-Year OS
While the immediate risks of sticking with XP seem manageable, it's the unknown -- support issues, third-party apps, potential Vista-only innovation -- that might concern IT professionals who are keeping their companies on XP. Still, none of those factors is likely to drive IT departments running scared from XP into the open arms of Vista.
And with Windows 7 possibly on the way within a couple of years, XP might not have to live that much longer. "We should be seeing Windows 7 betas early in 2009 if [Microsoft is] going to ship it in 2010," DeGroot says. "You should be evaluating Windows 7. Save yourself the grief -- don't work on a deployment strategy for Vista. You're barely a year away from Windows 7."
In all likelihood, a large percentage of IT departments won't need any convincing on that point. "XP is a great platform -- we love XP," Abdulhayoglu says. "As long as [Microsoft] keeps it up-to-date, there's no vulnerability that I know of that really rules it out."
Well, not right now, anyway. But 10 years is a long time for anything to last these days.
From : http://redmondmag.com/