Sunday, November 9, 2008

Linux, netbooks threaten Microsoft's fat profits

Microsoft's bottom line is hurting from Linux gains in netbooks, says a Bloomberg.com
story. A recent drop in Windows revenues is due in part to the fact
that leading netbook vendors Acer and Asus run Linux on about 30
percent of their netbooks, says the story.

(Click for larger view of Acer's Aspire One)

Last
quarter's Windows sales fell short of forecasts, says the story, and
Microsoft has curtailed growth projections for the year from over nine
percent to as little as two percent, citing lower revenue from
netbooks. The story quotes Microsoft as estimating that Windows
products run on about 70 percent of netbooks, a category that is never
defined, but which typically reflects an under-$600 mini-notebook with
displays ranging from seven to 11 inches.

The story quotes
Acer and Asus executives, meanwhile, as saying that Linux runs on about
a third of their netbooks. This is significant, considering that the
story estimates that the two companies together control some 90 percent
of the netbook market. Asus is credited with touching off the netbook
explosion with its Eee PC
(pictured below, right), which originally shipped as a Linux-only
system for $400 in Nov. 2007. Although the original Asus Eee PC shipped
with an Intel Celeron, the new versions of the Asus and Acer netbooks,
as well as the vast majority of netbooks, ship with Intel Atom
processors, and offer a choice of Linux or Windows XP.

Asus Eee PC
(Click for details)

The Bloomberg.com story did not quote an exact figure for the Linux share of the booming netbook market,
but given the Microsoft, Acer, and Asus estimates, it appears likely to
be over a quarter of the market. If accurate, that figure dwarfs
Linux's share of the higher-end PC system market, reported by research firm Net Applications last month at 0.71 percent, up from 0.47 percent in Aug. 2007.

The
story quotes Dickie Chang, an IDC analyst based in Taipei as saying,
"[The netbook market] is a real threat to Microsoft. It gives users a
chance to see and try something new, showing them there is an
alternative."

New life for XP

Just as troubling
for Microsoft, says the story, the vast majority of Windows netbooks
run Windows XP, which offers lower margins than does Vista. Yet, if
Microsoft had not extended XP's availability beyond its planned
discontinuation in June, the company may well have surrendered
considerably more of the market to Linux. Microsoft's Vista has
appeared on relatively few netbook models, and is widely considered to
be too resource-intensive for systems that must meet low netbook price
expectations. Microsoft claims, however, that its upcoming Vista
successor, Windows 7, will run much better on netbooks.

HP's Mini 1000
offers a homegrown
Linux distro

(Click for details)

The
story also cites a Citigroup study as saying that netbooks will
represent "about a third" of PC growth in 2008, and will grow at an
annual rate of 60 percent through 2010, when Citigroup expects 29
million netbooks to sell.

Despite the arrival of dual-platform netbooks from heavy hitters like Dell and HP, which recently introduced a Mini 1000 netbook
(pictured) that runs a homegrown Linux distribution called "Mobile
Internet Experience" (MIE), early market entrants Asus and Acer still
represent some 90 percent of the netbook market, says the story. By
most accounts, Asus has dominated the market. Yet, according to the Bloomberg.com story, Acer President Gianfranco Lanci recently claimed that Acer's $380 Aspire One was the world's best-selling netbook in the third quarter.

The
story quotes an Asus exec as saying that Linux has shipped in 30 to 40
percent of its Eee PCs, and that it expects Linux models to sustain a
30 percent rate going forward. Asus expects to sell 5 million Eee PCs
in 2008, says the story, whereas Acer is said to predict sales of 5
million to 6 million Aspire One units, with about 20 percent offering
Linux.

Availability

The Bloomberg.com story by Tim Culpan and Dina Bass, "Microsoft missing netbook growth as Linux wins sales," should be available here.

Source : http://www.desktoplinux.com/